About the seasonal forecast

This page contains some brief notes about the seasonal forecast which is run every month for the Climate Futures project. The seasonal forecast consists of 60 ensemble members and is run every month. Some basic anomaly, quantile and index plots are made available here.

Raw hindcasts for the seasonal forecast are located in NIRD in /projects/NS9873K/norcpm-cf/raw/norcpm-cf-system1/norcpm-cf-system1_hindcast1/. Hindcasts and forecasts are also regridded, and their metadata modified in order to match other C3S seasonal forecasts for provision to the Climate Futures project. Select post-processed variables are available through the NS9039K web interface at http://ns9039k.web.sigma2.no/seasonal_forecast/climate_futures/.

In order to perform accurate forecasts each month, up-to-date SST, salinity and temperature data is assimilated into the system. The SST data assimilated is the OISSTv2 data from NOAA, which from December 2022 is being replaced by the OISSTv2.1 dataset. Temperature and salinity profiles are downloaded from the UK Met Office EN4.2.2. dataset here.